Oodgeroo – QLD 2020

This is one of a very few seats that’s had a strong independent campaign already up and running. I don’t see it quite being Noosa 2017, but Claire seems to be gaining traction. Whether these votes come off GRNs, ALP or LNP is anyone’s guess for now, but she is targeting both LNP and ALP for perceived failures in the area and over-development. With long-term incumbency and over 50% on first prefs, I don’t see the LNP failing here, although it could close a little on the margin. [EDIT: Now I think of it, this is one seat the Greens vote could really be depressed as Claire is campaigning heavily on environment too.]

Related article: https://redlands2030.net/claire-richardson-independent-candidate-oodgeroo-2020/

Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain

This Clare Richardson campaign seems compelling and I think she could ride to the top on ALP and GRN preferences. I expect LNP will take a hit in SEQ which could give her the opening she needs. ALP were unlikely to run a winnable seat campaign here but an indie would allow the swing to play out in full.

Predicting an IND gain if Greens preference her over ALP and ALP preference her over LNP (both likely)

Seeing Robinson lose would be all my Christmas’ come at once, worst politician in Qld parly, daylight second. In saying that, this is merely a Disney fairy tale wish, he will get back, my prediction: LNP retain.

I predict Claire will do very well she got 54% of the vote in the Redlands City Council election when she ran for Mayor in the areas that are covered by the Oodgeroo state electorate. She polled very well in Wellington Pt, Cleveland, and North Stradbroke Island.

As somebody who traditionally helped Labor I’m told the Labor campaign is underfunded, under resourced particularly in the Oodgeroo RHC branch of the party. I imagine the Greens candidate Ian Mazlin will preference Claire, and Labor HQ on Peel St South Brisbane will over rule the local Labor campaign to direct preferences to Claire in the event Irene doesn’t enough make traction.

My prediction: possible IND Gain in the instance of preferences flowing.

I have it on good word that the Labor party campaign backing Irene Henley is under resourced and under staffed this time around. It looks like many people who traditionally back Labor or Greens are backing Claire. It also is an interesting seat to watch as the new Greens candidate Ian Mazlin could have his party preference Claire. The ALP HQ could also decide to preference Claire over all other candidates as well. Based on preferences from both Labor and Greens this could help Claire knock off Robinson like Zali did against Abbott in 2019. My prediction: IND gain.

Local myself and have spoken to a couple of folks who’ve been involved around the political traps in this area for a while, word is that Richardson will overtake Labor if not on primaries then at least during the dist. of preferences, may even take the seat. Richardson’s campaign is extremely strong and much better funded than the ALP campaign, she outnumbers the ALP on sign sites 5:1 around the electorate. Labor’s campaign is flaccid at best. Prediction: too close to call, but ALP running third.

FTB
This looks like it’s going to be a bit of fun. Know nothing of Robinson, however i’m happy to take your word for his lack of performance. I’ll be barracking for Claire on the night. With a hung parliament she may become very influential.
J Callen. Don’t think you can compare this to Warringah. The resources that went into that were extraordinary.
importantly though the task in Oodgeroo is just a fraction of destroying Abbott. If you want to be taken seriously it’s best not to mention Zali …! Just saying !

Winediamond Claire is pumping $100k into the campaign.

Callen J
$100 000 you don’t say ?. 1 % of getup!’s election budget of which they blew about 1/3rd on Warringah. You have to question the value in that.

It’s mostly her own money haha. She’s pretty well off as a successful business person and engineer/scientist. Everyone should look at ECQ returns.

Does Claire Richardson have a website or somewhere with a detailed policy platform? I understand she’s ‘an environmentalist’ but know nothing about her beyond that.

Assuming she’s serious about being ‘an environment’ then I imagine she’ll be crucial in securing a minority Labor government, if it’s even still possible.

Interesting how Greens preference flows to Labor seem pretty weak here compared to Brisbane.

Furtive Lawngnome here is a link to her website: https://vote4claire.com.au/

Thanks.

J Callen
Had a look at Claire’s website. Mightily unimpressed. Took one look at her & picked her fixation immediately. That isn’t good. READ most of the link. No doubt of her fixation Reformer type 1. Quite high functioning but unenlightened, & inflexible, & as usual profoundly blind. (MRS WD mk 1 was the same so i speak from personal experience). If elected she may surprise, & evolve, but far more likely not at all .

Essentially her platform is not much different from the Greens, in effect “Greens lite”!. So she isn’t really independent at all. Where is the incentive to vote for Claire. All she promises, is to be a (slightly !?) less insane Greens MP!! . That is so enticing to your average LNP voter !. Having said all that i would vote for her mainly because anything is better than the 2 majors, & out of respect for FTB’s low opinion of Robinson. My main point is that if Claire fails it will be because of her personal rigidity, & extremism. Oodgeroo was hers to win.

The stuff about a “renewable energy power station” is just nonsense. Far better that she weighed in on affordable power, & the Collinsville HELE power station. That would demonstrate some dexterity in thinking.

OR how about the environmentally responsible resumption of sand mining on Stradbroke Island. Now there is a challenge !!. But there are 1000 for real, as opposed to imaginary jobs. So much easier to talk about climate change alarmism, & renewable energy.

Toss Up But LNP lean

Winediamond: She is no Greens member that’s for sure. Seems very similar to Sandy Bolton MP in Noosa – Noosa’s past history when you really think about it isn’t that different. All parties held Noosa before Bolton there and had similar environmental issues in that region. Look at the odds for Sportsbet at present it has the LNP at $1.75 and Claire at $2 and the ALP at $4.50. If the Labor or LNP don’t gain a majority this is one of the seats that could determine the outcome of the election. Claire is very pro business minded as well as progressive but with no attached brand to any party which works to her favour especially considering the huge sway of vote she got in the area at the start of 2020 in the local government elections.

It’s tight on Sportsbet LNP $1.85 and Claire Richardson $1.95

Interestingly though political expert Paul Williams was asked about Claire Richardson’s chances in Oodgeroo. He suggested her chances were almost nil, as independents generally don’t have success in metro areas outside capital cities. He predicted an easy retain for the LNP.

“ He suggested her chances were almost nil, as independents generally don’t have success in metro areas outside capital cities.”

Interesting, but is this correlation or causation? An independent with a city council background did manage to win the Surfers Paradise by-election a few years back, and that’s as non-capital city metro as you can get, so it can be done.

Callen J
I’ll stand by everything i wrote. Looked at Sandy Bolton’s site. Completely different experience, on an instinctive level. Claire is nothing like Sandy. You are kidding yourself.(if you see it otherwise)

If the “progressives “(left) could get past obsessing over the “truth, purity, & moral superiority” of their message, & start becoming aware of how it’s being received, & why, they might start evolving. Just a suggestion….IAC Claire already has those votes ,she needs to capture others.

One further comment. If a politician has a raft of policies that are in effect anti – business, & then turns round & says “but i’m pro business” it’s nothing more than a meaningless platitude – at best. That is the difficulty Albo is having

@Shazzadude

That was a bye-election big difference and it was won by independent Lex Bell. But what you left out all those voters came scurrying back to the Liberal Party and the seat of Surfers Paradise was won by John Paul-Langbroek the following general election in 2004. In fact not only Bell lost the seat at the general election, but he even failed to make the final two party preferred vote.

Paul Williams says there are exceptions with celebrity candidates, or when there has been a party scandal which has turned voters off a major party candidate. But he was referring more in general terms.

And that leaves the question:is it correlation, or causation? Are there any explanations offered as to why specifically non-capital city metro centres are tougher to win for strong independent campaigns, or does it end at “well it hasn’t happened much before”?

Independents have a harder time in larger city media markets because the individual seat races don`t get the coverage they do in smaller media markets. That is also why independents often do better in by-elections, where the media coverage is by-election specific.

I tend to think also independents fair better in the regions. They gain alot more traction with the ‘both the major parties only care about SE Queensland’ argument. Their also voters that are less likely to cross over to the other major party then urban voters are. So a disaffected regional/rural voter is more likely to seek an alternative in backing an independent, then an urban/city voter who will change their vote to the opposite major party.

Interesting there are no independents in the Queensland regions right now. I’m thinking the minor parties are swallowing up the regions interest in electing a independent at the moment.

winediamond: Jeez you sound like such an expert with your political bias clearly looking at the big picture lol, the business end of town love Claire which gives her the advantage. Its not like she’s getting tips from Bolton or Zali ;). Political nightwatchman: UQ political scientist Glenn Kefford has come out on twitter contradicting Paul Williams by saying the election locally and abroad could be even more unpredictable as Covid 2nd wave is beginning to pass, as the economy and recession is getting the attention front and centre. Kefford believes a hung parliament could be at play with KAP gains in the regions, and GRNs gains in Brizy. Independents have done well in Noosa, Nambour, and Gladstone during regular elections, Cleveland might be a gamer changer as its not completely a metro seat being on the bayside east of Brisbane. This is defs a race to watch and it could be that preferences from Labor, Greens, or any IMOP voters could make the difference to Claire. Particularly as she’s attracted ex Labor, Greens, and LNP volunteers as well as everyday people who usually don’t care much about politics.

Callen J .. After the announcement that the Liberals would preference Labor last, a hung parliament is looking like the probable outcome …

Williams is one of the least credible political and election analysts around.he hardly ever predicts anything accurately

Queensland Observer and Peter Knopke: exactly my point. Interestingly there is a swing to Labor on the Sunny Coast and Gold Coast but will that be enough to help Labor get over the line in their own right? Seats like Oodgeroo will be interesting to watch that’s for sure on election night, Redlands is also looking like a tough battleground seat, which is shaping up to be quite the bellweather lately.

Tom the First and the Best
Where is there local media coverage in regions any more.
Most provincial dailies have been closed down. Local News collection on TV went twenty five years ago and radio is now steamed from South.
There are still isolated pockets of locally owned weekly newspapers but they are isolated islands in a sea dependent on Newd Ltd capital city papers.
It is time to make local radio licences dependent on having local news content.No local news NO LICENCE with an immediate reallocation of licence to a firm that will provide Local News.
Even local throwaways have disappeared in Brisbane.

E

A lot of talk going around here about Richardson. I know that Robinson does tend to one of the most conservative voices in the LNP. This may see some voters swing towards the independent. However, I think 2 questions arise.

First, this is one of those important elections as a result of the pandemic and economic recovery. Will voters be interested in voting for minors and independents at such a consequential election? Normally, you would suppose that the majors would do better in times like these.

Second, its been said in the papers that Richardson could end up propping up a Labor government should they reach a minority and she wins this seat. This is effectively the Liberal heartland in Brisbane now and Richardson will have to win over traditional Liberal voters. I am not saying she will prop up Labor should a hung parliament arise however, would potential voters be turned off by this?

Personally, this could be a close race as Richardson will inevitably win over some Liberals and will likely come second (though that Labor margin needs to fall some bit) and get preferences. However, gut feeling for me says that Robinson will hold, but on a very small margin.

Prediction: LNP Retain

LNP retain

I do not know much about this electorate, but my guess is that the ALP vote will go up a bit and will keep the independent in third place, which would certainly mean an LNP retain.

LNP sources are now confirming that they could lose the seat this Saturday:

Polling sugggests Richardson at 51 and Robinson on 49.
A lot of people commenting on this thread really need to do their homework and look at the history, democraphics and issues. This is as I’ve said consistently a seat to watch on election night.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/29/queensland-election-warringah-independent-claire-richardson-lnp-mark-robinson

LNP retain, I’ll believe Robinson loses when I see it, worst politician in Qld but he has a good seat for him.

Callen J
I’ve read that same article. If that poll is correct, this will be a very close race and one to watch.

A question arises though from this poll though. What are the primary votes for each candidate? We don’t know the difference between IND and ALP for second place and what primary vote does LNP get. For Richardson to win she will have to come second and win with ALP and GRN preferences. If it is an ALP vs LNP race, Robinson will easily win.

I can definitely see Greens putting her ahead of Robinson and even One Nation is doing so, but would they put ALP over Richardson. If ALP beats Richardson on primaries and they lead with preferences, she won’t be able to win the seat.

Richardson will need a decent primary vote that will probably have to be higher than Labor’s due to Green preferences going to ALP more strongly. This may be a close race for not just 2PP between IND vs LNP, but IND vs ALP.

As the poll suggests, this will be a close race. But Richardson has the extra trouble of beating Labor into getting into 2PP.

Should also mention that LNP has top spot on the ballot paper followed by ALP and IND is last.

J Callen
Yeah mate my political bias………….!. Obviously you haven’t read enough of my stuff to know i don’t have one, i have a position. I support ANY politician showing CONCIOUSNESS, & leap at the opportunity to do so!!. My observation is either there are fewer on the left, or that they toe party line more.

You missed my point that i would vote for Richardson given the chance. If-if you people concentrated on the real issue here you might do better. That being the latest attempt to create SYLVANIA WATERS, St Huberts Island, or Patterson Lakesetc,etc,etc, in THIS ELECTORATE. I’d have thought that was an absolute no brainer!

Given the ecological disaster that these kind of developments create Richardson should absolutely piss it in. Let’s hope the voters get it right, or at least get rid of the sitting member

According to today’s exit polls with the Courier Mail the following 13 seats are ones to watch:

– McConnel
– South Brisbane
– Keppel
– Noosa
– Barron River
– Caloundra
– Mansfield
– Aspley
– Pumistone
– Bundaberg
– Townsville
– Currumbin
– Oodgeroo

Contenders: Irene Henley (ALP), Claire Richardson (IND)

Issues: Ms Richardson ran a mayoral campaign where she scored a high vote in Oodgeroo booths this year. She has also seized on community anger over plans to develop Toondah Harbour.

This really all depends on whether Richardson can overtake Labor for second position. My first instinct is probably no

LNP retain

Callen J
See thats my point.The harbour issue, (& its much more than that) got lost, or was overshadowed by all the other climate alarmism noise (& Posturing)
. Shows that she didn’t think about how her message was being received , by whom etc. Sales, & business teaches all that, or you starve.

@Democract Sausage, we ruling out Labor winning of her prefs?

The Greens HTV has Richardson at #2. That should make it easier for her.

This contest turned out to be a bit of a fizzer. I guess Paul Williams won’t have to find a new job after all.

Richardson could still be in it. Current numbers: LNP 41.0, ALP 27.4, Ind 22.6, other 9.0 (Greens, ON, IMOP). Greens and IMOP HTV cards had her at #2, while ON had LNP – ALP – Richardson. Assuming everyone follows them (yeah, I know…) that’s a 3cp of LNP 44.1, Ind 28.5, ALP 27.4. She would then need about 80% of Labor prefs to beat the LNP, which is tough but possible.

Realistically, some One Nation voters would’ve put Richardson ahead of the majors (which helps her), while some Green voters would’ve put Labor #2 (which doesn’t). LNP still definitely the favourites, but this isn’t over.

Bird of paradox that would be record disciplined preferences.

With the current primary votes (71.5% counted) of 4.8% GRN, 3.1% PHON, 1.1% IMOP it is probable that none of these parties would have had much organisation of HTV cards.

Perhaps if Claire Richardson’s campaign was ruthless they may have dressed up one volunteer per booth in a Green shirt and procured some Greens cards to maximise the chances dead seat Green voters preferenced their way? I can’t imagine a IMOP voter following an IMOP card even if that trick was tried.

Claire Richardson is not doing much worse on the current sample of postals but she would need to have a great showing in absentees and the remaining postals to have a chance.

I might take a moment to go over some Condorcet criterion failures that may be found in this election. Usually they are rare as the 3rd parties in Australia tend to be “on the extremes” of Labor and Coalition rather than between them. I recall that there were a few Condorcet failures in South Australia with Xenophon/Centre Alliance candidates getting excluded in 3rd when they would have defeated every other candidate in a 2PP battle had they made it there.

Oodgeroo is likely a Condorcet failure if Richardson loses, one presumes the ALP voters would have preferenced her much stronger than her voters are preferencing Labor.

Due to the LNP preferencing the Greens McConnel and Cooper the apparent outcomes there are Condorcet failures. Maiwar had potential to be a Condorcet failure in the other direction with the LNP HTV bucking the trend and putting the incumbent last! But the absurdly strong Green primary vote means Michael Berkman probably would win the 2PP vs ALP.

Another Condorcet failure is Mirani where the LNP would have won if they had made the final 2.

Can anyone find more?

Bennee a bunch of seats in NQ had KAP as everyone’s 2nd preference (including ALP and LNP) so maybe there.

From memory there was very little to be learned from NSW which actually let’s you see the 2CP for any match up. Only point of interest was an exclusion order mattered in Lismore; if the Greens overtook Labor then the Nats would have taken the seat (but they didn’t). However that’s with OPV and many strong incumbents running “just vote 1” campaigns.

I would like to see all elections follow NSWs example, even if the full suite of 2CPs only comes out years later. Elections where exclusion order matters seem to be becoming a lot more common. This seat seems like a clear case where Labor are a victim of their own success.

Rockhampton (Strelow) was a Condorcet failure in Queensland 2017. Macalister may have been one too; Hetty Johnston referred to some ECQ count that she said had her 2000+ ahead – I’ve seem no confirmation of that but it may have been a hypothetical Labor vs Johnston 2CP.